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IMF economist speculates about a rush to dump the
dollar
By Andrew Peaple and Emily Barrett
Dow Jones Newswires
Monday, January 23, 2006
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20060123
\ACQDJON200601231026DOWJONESDJONLINE000413.htm
(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.)
LONDON -- A run on the U.S. dollar that would see investors rushing
to dump the currency is a possibility, although it's difficult to
judge how likely an outcome that is, the International Monetary
Fund's chief economist said Monday.
Speaking at a conference on global imbalances, Raghuram Rajan also
said a rapid and large appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the
dollar and other currencies would be more likely to damage the world
economy than be of benefit to it.
With the U.S. current account deficit running at close to 7% of
gross domestic product, economists have long expected the dollar to
depreciate against other major currencies, and feared the dollar
could go into free fall if that prompted international central banks
and investors to flee the greenback.
"We are in a risky situation," said Rajan. "You cannot discount a
run on the dollar. But you cannot fully quantify that risk at the
moment."
Rajan added that he's more concerned about the possibility that a
run on the currency will be triggered by foreign private investors
abandoning the dollar than the risk that international central banks
will diversify away from U.S. assets.
"The first action will come from foreign private investors, who have
no motives other than returns," he said.
The U.S. government has long argued that China's yuan is undervalued
against the dollar, leading to a large bilateral trade deficit
between the U.S. and China.
The Chinese authorities are very slowly moving towards a more
flexible currency regime, having abandoned a pure dollar peg in July
in favor of fixing the yuan against a basket of currencies.
Since that move, however, the yuan hasn't moved much against the
dollar, and U.S. politicians and industrial lobby groups continue to
call for a stronger yuan.
But Rajan said a sharp appreciation in the Chinese currency could be
more of a curse than a blessing for efforts to rebalance the global
economy. Although a sharply stronger yuan would boost Chinese
consumer demand by making imported goods cheaper, it could also slow
the country's economy by hitting its exports.
"A huge step appreciation (in the exchange rate) would do more harm
than good, " Rajan said.
He added that the IMF advocates a more gradual approach to allow the
yuan to respond to market forces more flexibly. The IMF is also
urging the U.S. to cut its budget deficit, and pressing the European Union and Japan to implement structural reforms that will boost
their long-term growth potential.
But Rajan said there is a risk that before these actions are taken
to rebalance the global economy, rising protectionism will lead to
weaker growth.
"The...worry is that before (these adjustments) happen, we'll have
much greater protectionist forces raising their head, Rajan said.

Millions in Georgia without heat
From CNN Correspondent Ryan Chilcote
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/01/24/russia.gas/index.html
(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.)
MOSCOW, Russia (CNN) -- More than 4 million people in Georgia were without heat for a third straight day Tuesday after a series of blasts destroyed the Russian pipeline that supplied the country's natural gas needed for its central heating.
The crisis comes as the former Soviet republic battles the coldest weather it has seen in three decades.
Hopes were high that heating would be restored in the next couple of days, but a number of factors now appear to be complicating that effort.
While Russian officials repair the pipeline, Georgia was set to receive about half of what it needs from Russia through neighboring Azerbaijan.
But that supply has now been cut off after Russia reported a problem with a compressor unit, the head of the Georgian presidential administration, Georgy Averladze, told CNN.
Meanwhile, the repair work on the main pipeline has been postponed due to a technical problem, Russian officials said.
Averladzde said he believes Russia is intentionally withholding natural gas from Georgia to punish the Western-leaning country for its foreign policy.
"Things like this don't happen by accident," he said. "Just as things were getting back to normal, Russia's supply is cut again. Is that a coincidence?"
Earlier, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili accused Russia's secret service of sabotaging the pipelines.
The Kremlin calls those claims absurd and has warned Georgia that its rhetoric will only further worsen relations between the two countries.
On Tuesday, Georgia's energy minister said Iran had indicated it was prepared to export natural gas to his country.
"Iran has said it is willing to supply gas to Georgia," The Associated Press quoted Nika Gilauri as telling reporters after a quick trip to Iran.
Copyright 2006 CNN. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Associated Press contributed to this report.

Nine dead in attack in Nigeria
Italian oil company offices robbed
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/africa/01/24/nigeria.attacks.ap/index.html
(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.)
PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria (AP) -- Camouflage-clad attackers raided an Italian oil company's riverside offices in Nigeria on Tuesday, sparking a gunfight that left nine people dead before assailants fled by speedboat into the oil-rich delta's waterways.
The attack on Agip's offices in the southern oil center of Port Harcourt is the latest in a recent rash of violence across the restive Niger Delta that has killed nearly two dozen people, cut petroleum production in Africa's largest oil exporter and helped push up prices of crude worldwide.
The attackers, wearing army-style uniforms, cruised up behind Agip's riverbank facility in their boat, forced their way into the compound and stole about $28,000 (euro23,000) in cash before the shoot-out with security forces, said Samuel Adetuyi, the head of the police in the city.
Seven uniformed police, a plainclothed security official and one company employee died in the gunfight that ended when the attackers fled in their speedboat back into the region's labyrinth of creeks and swamps, he said.
Agip's parent company Eni SpA said in Italy that it "has temporarily evacuated staff and contractors from the area of the base affected by the incident and the situation is currently under control."
The company said there were others injured, but it was unclear how many. Italy said none of its citizens were among the dead.
A rash of attacks and kidnappings in recent weeks by militia groups demanding the release from prison of local leaders have cut Nigeria's daily exports of 2.5 million by nearly 10 percent and claimed at least 23 lives.
But Adetuyi said there was no immediate evidence that Tuesday's attack on Agip was linked to that.
"I can't confirm whether there is any link with militiamen," Adetuyi said.
Despite the massive amounts of crude pumped from southern Nigeria, much of the region remains in abject poverty and activist groups have been agitating for President Olusegun Obasanjo's federal government to provide them with a greater share of state oil revenues.
At least 14 other people have been killed in oil-platform attacks and other violence since earlier this year.
Hostages moved deeper into delta
Meanwhile, militants claiming to hold four foreign hostages elsewhere in the Niger Delta said the oil workers are in decent health but had been moved deeper into the region of swamps and creeks after the government failed to meet the captors' demands.
In a statement e-mailed to The Associated Press, purported representatives of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta -- the group that says it is holding the oil workers from the United States, Bulgaria, Britain and Honduras -- said Nigeria had not yet met demands for authorities to release two of the region's leaders from jail.
"Be assured therefore that the hostages in return, will remain our guests," said the statement, whose authors could not be verified. Demands and news of the hostages' conditions have repeatedly been sent from the same e-mail address.
The statement said the hostages, who were taken 13 days ago, had been moved further into the Niger Delta, a swampy region of 70,000 square kilometers (27,000 square miles) where much of the petroleum is pumped in Africa's largest oil exporter.
The hostages "are in good health and have adapted fairly well to the conditions under which the people of the Niger Delta have been kept for the last 48 years," the statement said.
The militants are demanding the release of Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, a militia leader from the region facing treason charges, and Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, the one-time regional governor detained for corruption.
They allege the two ethnic Ijaw leaders were facing persecution by Obasanjo's government for advocating more local control of oil resources, a cause they have now vowed to pursue by armed struggle.
While they have threatened more attacks in the south, it was not known if the gunfight at the Agip offices were part of their campaign.
Inhabitants of the impoverished and restive southern region accuse a succession of Nigerian governments and oil companies of cheating them out of the oil wealth produced on their land. The oil companies say they are living up to their end of contracts signed with the government.
Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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